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Marcus Pedersen - December 2022

The current market development

Lets take a closer look at the current market development. It seems to have in no way escaped anyone's notice that the market rose violently from mid-late 2021 until March 2022, where it then took a longer plunge until October/November 2022.These are the cold facts as can be seen on the graphs below.

Many factors have caused prices to either fall or rise. A few of them are listed below which make up both trends:
- Negative and positive interest rate
- Business of money
- Corona
- China
- War in Ukraine
- People's financial situation
- Supply/demand

But as the graphs also indicate, we are looking further back in time here than just from mid-2021. To get a better understanding, you should look further back in time and see things in a slightly different way.

4 watches are chosen as an example in this mini analysis - actually 5. These are: 116500LN Panda, 116610LV a.k.a Hulk, 116710BLNR a.k.a Batman and 126710BLNR a.k.a Pepsi - maybe not by chance, as it has been some of the 4 most hyped models. The 5th watch is a 1680 Red Sub.

On the graphs you can see 3 and 5 year developments, where the sharp increase and the longer dip are evident.What you also see is that the price level today is close to what you should be able to expect from a good investment if you look over a 3 and 5 year period.
Obviously, if you bought at or near the top of the curve at the end of 2021/early 2022, it looks more gloomy. But from a longer investment point of view (which many investments are based on), things actually look quite positive.The black line shows a more natural and real growth and development. What financiers call a trend line. A development where most investors and people would be extremely satisfied.
Remember that there are many of us who thought that the price increases and growth we saw in mid-late 2021 and until March 2022 were wild, crazy and quite unhealthy. Having said that, there were also many of us who were happy and euphoric, as a lot of money could be made in a relatively short time. When something rises so quickly and so strongly and in so short a time, it must probably be described as wild and unnatural - an unhealthy market, many would think.
As mentioned, the market fell from March 2022 and many in the watch world (private, semi-professional and professional) naturally talked crosswise about this topic. Some even panicked, while others had more ice in their stomachs. Someone may have seen things from the same perspective as me and others. No doubt that many predicted and still predict that the market has crashed. It has fallen .. yes is preserved .. and on several references more than others. Especially on the hyped references that I have included in the review here. But to call it a crash might be exaggerating.
Let's jump to the 5th watch, which is a vintage watch and a ref. 1680 Red, and use it as an example. Look at the 5-year curve and there you will see a completely different development in the market. A somewhat smoother rise and not nearly as volatile. This can be seen as a more healthy development, but for many probably not as fun, exciting and nail-biting.

If you look at the graphs of the 4 hyped watches again, it can be seen on the black line that the market is currently actually at the "correct" and natural level and with promising readings, if you look at the entire 3 and 5 year period.In other words, the market has not crashed if we see things a little more nuanced and do not focus in isolation for a few months, but over a longer period.

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  • DavidMar 24, 2023


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